As a regular consumer I've pretty much decided I'll buy China's tech if they start competing in the western market. There's a lot of talk about China dumping into western markets and warnings that we'll be left with nothing at some point, but I'm sitting here right now with... nothing.
I'll buy RAM from the devil if it's the difference between running local AI vs becoming dependent on a cloud provider.
Western manufacturers really shot themselves in the crotch with this one. Foot isn't strong enough here.
Had CXMT hit a normal functioning market, they would be a much harder sell-- existing vendors could spread FUD about performance and quality to hold them back for a few years. But now you have an audience that is desperate to the verge of soldering up banks of 74LS74 flip-flops to make their own RAM.
It's not even like they're offering a reasonable "there's a domestic product but it's marginally more expensive" alternative. And it's all their fault. I sort of wonder if someone was actually saying "we'd better keep some supply around just to avoid burning our bridges with Dell/HP/Apple/etc." when the deals went down.
The US might try to go protectionist/China-baiting to keep CXMT products off their market, but I expect they'll sell just fine everywhere else.
> Had CXMT hit a normal functioning market, they would be a much harder sell-- existing vendors could spread FUD about performance and quality to hold them back for a few years.
I agree with this. Off-brand NVMe and SSDs are really in your face right now and as people buy them out of desperation they’re learning they work just fine. Western manufacturers have done massive damage to their long term brands for some short term profits.
If not for China majority of green energy supply wouldnt exist. Neither would near-SotA LLMs with open weights.
I might not like CCP, Xi or whatever they do inside their country, but China is net positive for the world.
Refreshing considering how more and more of western countries are controlled by populists and / or delussional billionare overlords who reject global warming, vaccines, nuclear energy, etc.
The other biggest emitter is still barely decreasing its emissions, far less halting. A slight decrease in the rate per year does not save us from the point of no return.
Hopefully PRC will involute the shit out of compute and commoditize it like agriculture, margins should be so thin that ASML/TSMC/NVIDIA should only be sustained by subsidies.
Across the global volume of 185 million to 220 million laptops per year, where manufacturers were putting in 16GB RAM for the past decade (or longer), we really need 128GB to run local inference for the AI-centric world of the future, so that is an additional 112 GB per laptop - this creates an annual shortfall of 20.72 to 24.64 billion gigabytes (20.72 to 24.64 Exabytes) of DRAM.
Just for laptops alone, ignoring the desktop or server or cloud or other markets.
Manufacturing supply is going to take 5 years to catch up.
Buy memory stocks (MU/SKHynix) - they will be multiple of their current prices in 5 years.
Most DDR5 is sold at 6000Mbps, LPDDR6 more than doubles this to 12800Mbps and the high end RAM could theoretically operate at 16000Mbps. This means every single PC or Laptop could have a good fraction of Strix Halo level memory bandwidth out of the box beating a Geforce 1060 for budget PCs and the next generation of Strix Halo would have 90% of the memory bandwidth of a Geforce 5060.
I'll buy RAM from the devil if it's the difference between running local AI vs becoming dependent on a cloud provider.
Had CXMT hit a normal functioning market, they would be a much harder sell-- existing vendors could spread FUD about performance and quality to hold them back for a few years. But now you have an audience that is desperate to the verge of soldering up banks of 74LS74 flip-flops to make their own RAM.
It's not even like they're offering a reasonable "there's a domestic product but it's marginally more expensive" alternative. And it's all their fault. I sort of wonder if someone was actually saying "we'd better keep some supply around just to avoid burning our bridges with Dell/HP/Apple/etc." when the deals went down.
The US might try to go protectionist/China-baiting to keep CXMT products off their market, but I expect they'll sell just fine everywhere else.
I agree with this. Off-brand NVMe and SSDs are really in your face right now and as people buy them out of desperation they’re learning they work just fine. Western manufacturers have done massive damage to their long term brands for some short term profits.
I might not like CCP, Xi or whatever they do inside their country, but China is net positive for the world.
Refreshing considering how more and more of western countries are controlled by populists and / or delussional billionare overlords who reject global warming, vaccines, nuclear energy, etc.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions
The other biggest emitter is still barely decreasing its emissions, far less halting. A slight decrease in the rate per year does not save us from the point of no return.
Manufacturing supply is going to take 5 years to catch up. Buy memory stocks (MU/SKHynix) - they will be multiple of their current prices in 5 years.