The Mathocalypse

(scottaaronson.blog)

89 points | by 6bitquant 1 hour ago

21 comments

  • yewenjie 25 minutes ago
    > Experience has shown that, even now, there will still be people explaining in patronizing tones why none of this is real and none of it counts. If such people were capable of being impressed by anything that happens in the empirical world, of updating on anything, they would’ve already been impressed and already updated several years ago, long before things had reached the point of an actual Mathocalypse.

    ^^ half of the comments on this thread

    • Fraterkes 4 minutes ago
      Having stuff explained to you in patronizing tones? How horrible Scott!
    • ssfdg 17 minutes ago
      Also a ton of comments in this thread: breathless frothing hype declaring mathematics is over and assuming these proofs are exactly what they claim they are at face value, giving the company with a vested interest in everyone unquestioningly believing this is all real every conceivable benefit of the doubt
      • azan_ 15 minutes ago
        Didn't top math researchers call AI progress absolutely real and dangerous for math? It's not just HN commenters that are impressed!
        • ssfdg 6 minutes ago
          By all accounts the "dangerous for math" claims seem to be primarily around flooding the field with complicated impossible-to-understand proofs that according to recent research may or may not be correct depending on what's going on with the Lean implementation.

          It's looking to me like it's more of a slop PR problem than it is that these things are genius at math and will displace mathematicians. I am happy to be wrong but I strongly suspect the next few weeks to months will result in more and more of this work being exposed as slop.

          These things are ok-ish to halfway decent at coding tasks with a ton of babysitting and still make tons of extremely simple errors almost constantly, why should math be any different?

    • 12kajh 22 minutes ago
      If you haven't made progress in Quantum Computing in the last 10 years, lecturing others can become a popular pastime.
      • moffkalast 6 minutes ago
        Trust me bro, just 100 more cubits, I swear we'll break everyone's encryption and cause the downfall of society, please bro just one more grant, It'll be stable this time :'(
      • azan_ 16 minutes ago
        You know, if you attack ad personam you've got to be ready that someone will do same against you - what progress did you make in the last 10 years (or in your entire life for that matter)?
        • jamiek88 7 minutes ago
          He was created 14 minutes ago, give him a break!
    • Rover222 11 minutes ago
      more like 3/4 of the comments but yea
  • softwaredoug 10 minutes ago
    Aren’t there dozens of proofs of the Pythagorean theorem? The goal isn’t to just “prove” but create something well written and intuitive to the average practitioner. And by gaining a deeper understanding we can ask better questions.
    • WD-42 0 minutes ago
      No, haven’t you heard? Since the AI bubble began we’ve collectively decided that outcomes are all that matters. /s
  • ks2048 44 minutes ago
    > It feels like something written by someone who’s on psychedelics. So much unclear and doesn’t make sense. Lots of name dropping of previous work without discussing why it can be used despite impossibility results

    > Basically the paper is so horribly written that it’s impossible to read it without AI help

    That's interesting and haven't seen this in all the coverage of this event.

    It sounds horrible to wade through - like trying to understand someone else's messy code that still produces the correct output.

    • TheOtherHobbes 2 minutes ago
      Math proofs need to produce the correct output correctly, which is not quite the same thing.

      This looks like an AI IPO PR powerplay, because at this point the proofs haven't been checked and it may not be possible for a human to check them - because proofs should be clear, not horribly written and noisy.

      The noise is suspicious because it's the difference between brute forcing and cognition. A human proof won't just be logically correct, it will be cognitively distilled and coherent. It may still take years to understand it, but the logical flow will be straightforward, not obfuscated.

      You want the path through the maze to be as short as possible and the map to be as clear as possible.

      This sounds like the opposite. There may be a genuine path through the maze, but if it's too convoluted and takes too long it will be impossible to confirm.

      I think the next step is to demand that proofs either be human-scale or they prove that a human-scale proof is impossible and the machine proof is as good as it gets.

      I suspect that's possible without tripping over the halting problem. (But I can't prove it.)

    • piker 29 minutes ago
      It also aligns with the fear that these proofs present a risk to the ecosystem by out-competing attempts at more human-readable proofs. Perhaps though we end up with more math influencers who edit and annotate these proofs to bring them back to us.
      • bobajeff 10 minutes ago
        I think that's ultimately a good thing. As proofs weren't supposed to be the point as stated by William Thurston long ago. Maybe now the focus can be more on better explanations and creating tools for growing understanding and intuition.
      • rrr_oh_man 9 minutes ago
        Vibe mathing
    • aaroninsf 15 minutes ago
      Serious question:

      Why would anyone believe this (also) is not simply example N+1 of this is the worst it will ever be, as opposed to recognizing this as what will almost certainly prove to be an awkward moment, soon to be replaced by another order of magnitude of cleaner, clearer, more intelligible, etc.?

      Ximm's Law: every critique of AI assumes to some degree that contemporary implementations will not, or cannot, be improved upon.

      • devin 5 minutes ago
        Devin's Law: every defense of AI which rests on "it will get better, trust me" is in many ways indistinguishable from 2010s crypto hype or "level 5 self driving is right around the corner"
  • ajjenkins 7 minutes ago
    The line about “understanding the aliens” reminds me of Ted Chiang’s short story The Evolution of Human Science (2000).

    Highly recommend reading it. Very prescient for something written 26 years ago.

    https://gwern.net/doc/fiction/science-fiction/2000-chiang.pd...

  • nostrademons 53 minutes ago
    As a side note, you can tell this wasn't written by an AI by the first sentence:

    > mommy, I heard you got cooked! I heard that a robot solved the math problem you worked on for your whole career! OOF!

    My 8yo talks exactly like that. I could totally imagine him saying this, the same way, at the dining room table.

    I asked ChatGPT "pretend you're an 8/9 year old today. how would you insult your mom about having her job be replaced by an AI?", and the responses it offered were:

    > “Mom, AI took your job because apparently even robots were like, ‘Yeah… we can do this better.’”

    > “Mom, congratulations! You got replaced by a computer. Even Siri has a job now and you don’t!”

    > “Mom, AI took your job? Dang. I guess even a robot looked at your work and said, ‘I got this.’”

    > “Don’t worry, Mom. You can still be useful… like teaching the AI how to make my lunch.”

    All of these seem to have a vaguely Millennial flavor, aside from being pretty awkward and mechanical roasts. Trust the children and linguistic drift to be the best AI detector.

  • meander_water 2 minutes ago
    Can someone who understands maths more than me explain why it could only solve 372/8000 problems?

    What was it about the other problems that made them unsolvable? Was it just a time constraint, or are they just harder problems?

  • whatshisface 2 minutes ago
    I'll bite: none of this is real until I have learned something. OK, I am now listening. Does anyone want to make it real?
  • geraneum 18 minutes ago
    > my 9-year-old son was taunting my wife… “mommy, I heard you got cooked! I heard that a robot solved the math problem you worked on for your whole career! OOF!”

    Usually 9 year olds imitate adults when they regurgitate such words in these circumstances. What a sad state of affairs.

  • an0malous 38 minutes ago
    > But it also appears that no human has understood just about any of these proofs yet

    Has anyone verified any of the proofs produced by OpenAI or is everyone just assuming that it just be true because the Lean code checks out? Couldn’t the Lean code just be formulated incorrectly?

    • nperez19 36 minutes ago
      There's an entire paper claiming that many of these AI-generated Lean proofs are formulated incorrectly / mistranslated: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.08144
      • nsingh2 1 minute ago
        That's not what the paper is claiming. It's not claiming that the Lean proofs are incorrect instead that they don't match the write-ups exactly.
  • PowerElectronix 48 minutes ago
    What's with all the "AI just proved that this or that isn't O(n (log (n))^2) but akshually O(n (log (n))^1.99999)"??

    I guess it deserves respect as progress, but it just rubs me the wrong way. Like the machine did the absolute minimum to beat the previous mark.

    • bryan0 40 minutes ago
      Often times the constant (2 in this example) is a conjectured minimum, so anything below that is a noteworthy result. Think of it as breaking through some theoretical limit.
    • mswphd 15 minutes ago
      for say FFT/integer multiplication or 3SUM, we have natural algorithms that have existed a long time with a given complexity (O(n \log n) and O(n^2), respectively). Given how long these natural algorithms have been the best algorithms we have, it is natural to conjecture they are optimal. Showing an O(n(\log n)^{.99999}) algorithm exists shows that these optimality conjectures are false.

      Now, there are some critiques you can have of this. Namely, it is possible that these novel algorithms have significant trade-offs that make them almost never worthwhile in practice. "Fast" matrix multiplication algorithms are typically of this form. So perhaps this all points towards a deficiency in big O notation, which can be deceptive. But, for people who care about optimizing asymptotic complexity, it is still interesting.

    • para_parolu 45 minutes ago
      You just run it again and again and again
  • GMoromisato 52 minutes ago
    I liked the metaphor of a climber teleported to the top of a fog shrouded mountain. And I agree that now that the teleporter exists, we need to use it to reach more peaks and explore. There's no going back to a world where AI doesn't exist.
    • lumost 48 minutes ago
      The issue is ownership, we have no means of distributing the knowledge from the AI or rewarding those who could help.

      We are quickly moving to a world where all symbolic and numeric reasoning for economic purposes is performed by AI.

  • daoboy 37 minutes ago
    For those well suited through intelligence and demeanor to pursue a career in mathematics, what problems do these people reorient towards after this?
    • bananaflag 11 minutes ago
      I've asked my students whether they still want to learn maths even if there will be a machine that will answer any question instantly and they will be homeless. They said yes.

      (To my credit, I have warned them since more than a year ago that we will reach this point.)

    • shiandow 12 minutes ago
      To some extent this was discussed in the article, and in a way I think their goal is actually the same as it was: become the first human to understand something.

      It's just that we lost one of the important ways to demonstrate understanding.

    • 123as5 29 minutes ago
      Pro AI blogging sponsored by ClosedAI, XTX markets and the Simons Foundation.
    • carefree-bob 11 minutes ago
      They will continue to prove theorems and make discoveries, except now they will have AI to help them so hopefully progress will be faster. At the same time, new challenges will open up, for example how do you verify what the AI is doing and how do you explain it.

      Math isn't about collecting random theorems, progress in math is about gaining understanding of new systems, and the theorems are guideposts to aid in that understanding.

      You can prove 1000 theorems and not really increase any understanding about a subject, but gain knowledge of 1000 random facts. For example, I can write down some complicated equation and ask you "does this have a solution in the integers"? And if you do a maze of very complex and tedious algebra to show that there is a solution, you would have proved a theorem, but you would not have done much to move math forward at all.

      On the other hand, if you introduce some completely new technique, say you take my equation and turn that into an algebraic surface, and then you count some special curves that live on this surface using geometric ideas, and then you show that if the number of such curves is odd, there must be a solution in the integers, and in this specific case, it is odd, so there is a solution -- well, then you have really pushed math forward and people will celebrate your proof, even though no one really cares if the equation I wrote down has a solution in the integers.

      For example, there is a long history of failed attempts to prove Fermat's last theorem driving algebra and number theory forward by introducing the concept of ideals, for example, and this concept ended up much more important than whether Fermat's theorem is true or false, which is not too much more than a piece of trivia.

      Or for example, the recent proof of the Poincare conjecture relies on the machinery of the Ricci flow introduced by Richard Hamilton, who then applied it to solve a number of open problems, but Perelman was able to take it even more forward to solve Poincare. So Ricci flow was massively important machinery.

      For this reason, we celebrate people like Gromov, who didn't really prove that many theorems but introduced amazing machinery -- for example, the h-principle, or Gromov Compactness -- these were ideas and math is about the ideas. The ideas are then applied, using laws of logic, to form theorems.

      So mathematicians will need to mine these proofs to see if there are any new techniques - new machinery - being introduced, or if the AI just used the existing machinery more efficiently. Here too, we are just looking at AI as a form of search, which it is really good at, since there are so many thousands of papers and so many ideas, that there might be a connection between two areas that lead to a solution and the human mathematician, not knowing all known results, can't make that connection. In the future, we may wonder how anyone did math without AI, much like we would wonder how anyone can be a writer without access to a dictionary or reference work. Is the AI just searching through a catalogue of known ideas and connecting them or is the AI coming up with genuinely new stuff like Ricci flow or the h-principle?

      What is interesting is seeing whether we can get AI to actually discover new machinery for us. That would be huge.

      And then we need to find efficient ways to detect these ideas and describe them.

      Really this is very exciting and opens up whole new workstreams for mathematicians.

    • bayarearefugee 31 minutes ago
      > what problems do these people reorient towards after this?

      The same problem almost every person on earth is going to have to reorient to in the next decade, which is: how do we eat and stay housed when we have no real economic value?

      • geraneum 24 minutes ago
        This is weird. Long before this, those few benefiting from the whole thing should consider the number of hungry “every person on earth” is too high for bunkers and islands to be of any real protection.
    • mathisfun123 12 minutes ago
      priesthood
    • throw310822 33 minutes ago
      Food and shelter /s
  • adverbly 29 minutes ago
    Feels good to hear honesty and humanity from Scott having decided to watch Terminator 2 with his kids on after such a monumental release.

    Emotions can be funny.

  • zkmon 46 minutes ago
    The irony. Something that is born out of a science, eats up that science.
  • TMWNN 48 minutes ago
    Quoting DCKP <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49989738>:

    >I have had this conversation with my PhD students yesterday. I am 100% sure that all of their problems can be solved by publicly-available models now (I solved a case of one myself as a test, it took 15 minutes). So the challenge for them is to see how much they can accomplish in their allotted period, and still pass a defence on at the end of it all. The PhD defence is going to become all about a test of understanding, not a test of quantity of publication.

    Also, Ted Chiang's 2000 short story "Catching crumbs from the table" <https://np.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1wzu5gf/this_mi...>.

  • mlh496 43 minutes ago
    Imagine if a team of mathematicians from OpenAI had gone on a university tour, gave demos of how powerful their models were for math research, and then gave mathematicians access to the model. Empower others rather than drop 700+ discoveries on GitHub that were made using a model only they have access to.

    People might feel differently about AI if they were a part of the changes rather than being a helpless spectator.

    • AlanYx 19 minutes ago
      The reaction/fallout would have been substantially improved even if OpenAI had just made a commitment to not scoop external researchers using an internal model until X months after the model had been made available to the public.

      That would have given grad students who've been grinding towards a PhD for years a fighting chance to see if they could leverage the model to push their work forward, rather than watching years of work potentially turn to dust via a tool they don't even have access to.

      It wouldn't delay the progress of mathematics by any meaningful amount in the long run (an X month delay is nothing) for OpenAI to take this approach, and would help somewhat to preserve the health of mathematics as a field. Without it, the motivation for any young mathematician to devote years to a new problem must be sapped knowing there's an uneven playing field... an OpenAI team with access to colossal tools months before they'll ever be able to get access, willing to scoop anyone as soon as they can, perhaps without even taking the time to completely understand the proof.

      I don't see any long-term benefit to OpenAI with their current strategy. This is an internal model; it's not available for sale at the moment. They've said they're not even going to bother claiming the Millenium Prize money for Navier-Stokes. It feels like kicking over hundreds of other people's chessboards just because they can.

    • karmakurtisaani 38 minutes ago
      Also, the independent authors might have spent some time to actually understanding the results and producing a readable manuscript. The AI papers are pretty badly written.
  • OutOfHere 27 minutes ago
    The obvious answer is to have mathematicians use AI to:

    1. Help understand, check, and explain the results.

    2. Write new works explaining or refuting the new approaches and results in more lucid language.

    3. Advance the field further.

    I don't know why this is not obvious. Each step is intended to support human understanding, not to replace it. Any mathematicians who don't do these will be left behind, and if none do it, the field of human mathematics itself will become obsolete.

    • aeturnum 10 minutes ago
      You can certainly do that - but it's quite the break from tradition to release a paper in the state described. Why they did is a really interesting question! It may be that AI math requires approaches that humans don't find intuitive and what you are describing is actually counter productive (because, in summarizing the work in a way humans understand, you're removing the context an AI would use to further the work an AI did). It also might be that OpenAI could have done that and chose not to - or maybe they tried and this was the best they could do. No matter what I don't think anything about how to react to a paper being released in this state is obvious.
    • qingcharles 14 minutes ago
      Isn't AI well-suited to tasks #1 and #2, though?

      #3 at this point might need more human intuition; but that might be a 2026 problem.

  • tkdb 50 minutes ago
    C'mon. Mathpocalypse. Things are hard enough already.
  • 12376-1287 43 minutes ago
    Guy is misrepresenting AGMAI, talking about the Simons Institute (AI boosters), Quanta (AI boosting magazine from the Simons Foundation), Scoot Alexander (!) and Steven Pinker (!).

    The he puts up preemptive straw man arguments against doomers. His blog has become a joke.

    • ballmerpoint 15 minutes ago
      I’m still wondering why UT Austin is letting him teach a course (CS395T AI Alignment Theory) so completely outside his field of expertise (Quantum Computing).
  • matt3210 54 minutes ago
    Agents basically did statistically guided brutforcing. There is no value in what they produced because it lead to no understanding of anything and most likely will hurt the field IMO
    • dekhn 29 minutes ago
      That is not a correct description of what the AI did.
    • woah 24 minutes ago
      Evolution did statistically guided brute forcing. Doesn't mean that biology has no value